I'm a big fan of blogger Piping Shrike. Shrike's blog revolves around the idea that the two party system has run its course, and that this ending has brought about a crisis in the Australian political class. Both parties now no longer represent a coherent sectional interest. This has left our major parties floundering in search of a reason to exist. In the end both parties became clones of each other (pre 2007) as they sought to capture the middle ground.They had nothing relevant or new to offer. As far as the average Australian voter was concerned ideology was dead. If they suspected you...you know, believed in things, the gig was up. Welcome to the opposition benches.
 |
| What goes up.... |
But what happens when one side of the two party equation decides that many of the policies of the last 30 years are wrong? That ideology is back baby, didn't you miss it? That the agreement (or grudging acceptance) over an ‘Australian Compact’ is now over?
I think the ‘revolutionary’ aspects of this governments budget are doing exactly that. As an example even Howard and the British Tories shied away from touching the universal nature of healthcare. As small as this co-payment may be (to some, remember, lets not forget life goes on outside our gilded cages) , it is purely ideological, it has absolutely nothing to do with maintaining or increasing the health outcomes of Australians(in fact it will probably be shown to erode health outcomes). Charging people for ER visits is even more extreme in its ideological bent.
This isn’t incremental change, in line with previous regimes; this is a complete reorientation of the whole health system.
 |
| When being called a liar is the least of your problems |
Many bloggers, including Shrike, made some broad predictions of how an Abbott government would behave. Many stated, even this blogger did, that he would be an uneventful leader, that he would be a populist, and wouldn't rock the boat too much. However, this is clearly not the case. In fact he has set out, for whatever reason, to stir up a hornets' nest of opposition against his government. I very much doubt that this was what Abbott had planned, but it’s pretty clear that his backers have confused the result of the last election as a ‘mandate’ to enact sweeping changes to the fabric of the nation. I do not think this is what the vast majority of voters expected post September 2013. If anything Abbott was elected to repeal two pieces of legislation that had come to be seen as attacks(however weak and marginal) on the ‘Australian Compact’: the carbon tax and the mining tax (I’m aware that one was far more unpopular than the other)
The Abbott tax rises are almost irrelevant, they are a smoke screen to the real issue here. Focusing on them (whether from political parties or bloggers) is wrong-headed. It is the changes to the social welfare state that are the main game. None of this was even mentioned pre election. Cuts? Yes maybe. Complete reconfiguring of health, education, welfare, and the relationship with the states? No, that was not even remotely suggested or even imagined. The Coalition have basically stated that vast areas of the Australian social compact are kaput, finished, O-V-A-H.
 |
The fact that every other major political party in the land has now signalled its intention to block key parts of this governments agenda highlights just how divisive a budget it really is. Everyone, but this government, can see ways to make political mileage out of this budget. All have signalled a willingness to take this all the way to a Double Dissolution if needs be. One should always take DD threats with a boulder sized pinch of salt. However, polling has consistently shown that this is an unpopular government, with a very unpopular leader. The government has everything to lose, and really little to gain. DD never pan out as governments intend them to. It would be highly unlikely that this government would be able to frame subsequent debate; we only need to look to the shamozzle of the Commission of Audit, and this budget. Would the Coalition command a majority in both houses after such an election, considering it is now at a high water mark of support? I imagine there are a great many government back-benchers and ministers (mostly in Queensland) now wondering if indeed the man they have come to dislike and distrust is about to throw them under the bus.
 |
| He's the man you love to hate. |
So, is this the rebirth of the raison d'être of the two party system? Whatever it is, it certainly has put some wind up a few sails.
