"If You Wanna Be My Cabinet Minister, You Gotta Get With My Friends"

What the hell is going in the Coalition? Right-wing shock jock attacks on cabinet ministers; smugly   self satisfied leaking of an internal Liberal strategy designed to screw the Nationals over.....what the hell is going on?

We started the week off with a series of grenades being thrown by right wing shout mouths, Alan Jones and Andrew Bolt, at the 'dignified' figure of Malcolm Turnbull.

All of which was seemingly kicked off by a rather tongue-in-cheek Twitter campaign: #libspill

Why Bolt would give two shits over a 'leftist' twitter campaign is at first glance a mystery, but any criticism at this point in time of Abbott and his budget is just too much to bear for the hard right.

Jones and Bolt then proceeded to saddle up their drama-llamas and blow the whole thing into an epic shit-storm, because.......does anyone even fucking know?

This guy might 

All of this is because, of course, the government has continued to languish in polling hell. And so it should. This governments budget is awful, plain and simple. Don't take my word for it, look at the most recent polling; people like it less now then they did when it first appeared, which is really saying something!

But even worse is Abbott's own personal ratings: we hate him. I've seen plagues that were more popular than this man. And of course this has led to another social media 'campaign': #morepopularthantonyabbott. 

So we know the reason for all the angst amongst Abbott's supporters; bad, bad polls. You can't keep recording such dire polls and personal ratings without the spectre of leadership rumours rearing its ugly head. Morons like Bolt and Jones should probably be aware of this. And maybe they are? And maybe in fact what they are doing is destroying the man whom they see as Abbott's greatest threat?

In that case they should really be going after this guy:

Its become pretty clear that Abbott is a weak leader. He is weak externally, with the public, and weak internally, with the party. What is also now clear is that Abbott well and truly realises this, hence all the fire directed at Turnbull. I don't doubt for a second that the PM's office and his ministerial supporters have had some involvement with Bolt's extraordinary attacks, and more than likely Jones's one's as well. We have been told by many in the media that the PM "assured" Turnbull that his office had had no hand in egging the two on, but remember: "Never believe anything until its been officially denied". Now we essentially have confirmation from Turnbull's supporters, that there is indeed a campaign to destabilise him coming from the PM's office. And it all just gets more bizarre. Here's Fairfax with some leaked incendiary gossip:

"Fairfax Media understands that messrs Bolt and Jones have asked Labor for ammunition to use against Mr Turnbull, particularly in relation to his stewardship of the national broadband network."

What on earth?!

That these two commentators would be considered valued contributors to the modern conservative movement is beyond a joke. Abbott appears more than willing to listen to what Bolt and Jones have to say, but the public? They can go jump. The irony is that the relationship between the Coalition and these two men has always been seen as a positive, as a strength. The story goes that Bolt and Jones have a "real" connection to the Australian majority, or whatever. The reality is is that both these men are members of an insulated elite, who are both too busy smelling their own farts to really give a flying fuck about what the average voter thinks. This is the true danger for the Coalition: this crisis is proof of just how detached and distant they are from the concerns and needs of ordinary Australians. 

Our next crisis come to us for completely unknown reasons. I am flabbergasted that news of internal Liberal wheeling and dealing against the National party has come to light. Whose bright idea was that?

Independents unite!

What happened to Sophie Mirabella in Indi can easily happen to any other country Liberal or National, if they choose to ignore the wishes of their electors. That this 'smart' political maneuvering is also happening when Palmer is stalking the National party's base  raises serious questions about the strategic thinking of some in the Liberals. Do they think these electoral pressures will just disappear?

Well, I guess that's what happened last time.

Much has been made of the ideological and political connections between this government, and John Howard's first term. As much as I'd like to see the Spice Girls back in the charts again, this isn't the 1990's. The Coalition is not inhabiting the same political world as Howard did. Two examples that spring to mind are the fractious nature of today's media, and the uncertainty of America's global role. Nor is the current Coalition embarking on the same platform, or enacting the same vision that Howard had for Australia. Watching Howard and Hawke at the National Press Club made me all too aware of just how different this government is from the Howard era, although I imagine if you put this to current cabinet members they would probably laugh in your face. Now much of what these two old codgers had to say was pretty self serving, but there were some nuggets of insightful truth. Firstly, both Hawke and Howard made the point that Australians intrinsically understand fairness, and politicians of both sides of the house would be well advised to remember this. Secondly, they also made the point of that politicians shouldn't assume to know more than the voting public, especially on 'bread and butter' economic issues. And lastly, a party that descends into ideology is a party that wont be warming the government benches for very long.

As this government appears to be descending into squabbling factions, which leak and background different Fairfax papers (or sometimes the ABC), it appears as if these three truths have been well and truly forgotten. 

Carbon Copy Crisis?

Is the "greatest moral challenge" steaming back into Australian politics?


The last election, if you believe some pundits, was a repudiation the certain policy known as the ETS or the 'Carbon Tax' (remember:everything you don't like in politics is called a 'tax', 'cause mouth breathers hate those......don't they?)


The story goes that when Mr Abbott came to town the good burghers of Oz saw a chance to smite the Wicked Witches of the Carbon......

Because Mr Abbott hates taxes. What? Oh........

And they did, giving the Coalition a resounding election victory and a clear mandate!


Ooooor, maybe not.

Dad, Stop it!

But we can safely assume that "Axing the Tax" is still a goer, can't we?


Wellll, maybe not.

Looks like he's been breathing in too much carbon

Obama's announcement of sweeping cuts to U.S emissions via the EPA and the  Clean Air Bill has completely thrown Abbott's policy of repealing the ETS into disarray.

Although, I'm not sure he fully realises this change in the metrics of the debate. 

That Obama should be about to embark on a program designed to quite quickly reverse US emissions policy is a momentous event for the Australian political class. It means that our policy debate, which is centred on how to repeal the ETS, will now be on whether repeal is appropriate in light of international politics. 

In the next few months be prepared for relatively high levels of  U.S media scrutiny (from both sides of the political spectrum) on what our political system is doing with regards to climate change policy. I am sure the News Ltd publications will love that. This will all be kicked off with Abbott's very timely tour of North America. Abbott is about to meet Obama just as this debate flares up in the US. Can you imagine the joint press conference PM’s and Presidents usually hold? How will Abbott avoid openly contradicting the most powerful man in the world, and our greatest “friend and ally”? 

Will he avoid the whole thing? That in itself will be momentous: “Abbott snubs Obama!” 

But over time it gets worse for Abbott.  The next Conference of Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be held in Paris in November next year. The conference will seek to establish an international agreement on a post-2020 regime that will bind all the nations of the world, including the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, by a universal agreement on a response to global warming and climate change.

There will now be the focus and pressure on the Abbott government to commit to major CO2 reductions at COP 2015; there will be the decline in income from our largest export earner, and; there will be direct pressure from the US to respond positively on climate change.

All this will be compounded by the impression on the public mind created by the imminent El Nino weather system that is likely to cause drought and record temperatures across much of Australia over the next 12 to 18 months, once again pushing climate awareness to the front of the national mind.

I’ll put it bluntly: Due to changes in US domestic politics the Obama administration is pledging to cut its emissions substantially. It will pressure other countries to do the same. It will make this a focus of US policy for at least the next 2 years, and with the likely ascension of Clinton, also in the next term. This global debate will be happening at the same time as our national debate is heading in the opposite direction, and with our economy and environment under visible strain. 

Maybe we should actually beef up the ETS? How will repealing affect our trading position? The conservatives, both in the media and in the parliament, are not in any way prepared for this eventuality. Abbott’s position may become untenable not because of anything the ALP does, but because of external events well beyond our borders.