Carbon Copy Crisis?

Is the "greatest moral challenge" steaming back into Australian politics?


The last election, if you believe some pundits, was a repudiation the certain policy known as the ETS or the 'Carbon Tax' (remember:everything you don't like in politics is called a 'tax', 'cause mouth breathers hate those......don't they?)


The story goes that when Mr Abbott came to town the good burghers of Oz saw a chance to smite the Wicked Witches of the Carbon......

Because Mr Abbott hates taxes. What? Oh........

And they did, giving the Coalition a resounding election victory and a clear mandate!


Ooooor, maybe not.

Dad, Stop it!

But we can safely assume that "Axing the Tax" is still a goer, can't we?


Wellll, maybe not.

Looks like he's been breathing in too much carbon

Obama's announcement of sweeping cuts to U.S emissions via the EPA and the  Clean Air Bill has completely thrown Abbott's policy of repealing the ETS into disarray.

Although, I'm not sure he fully realises this change in the metrics of the debate. 

That Obama should be about to embark on a program designed to quite quickly reverse US emissions policy is a momentous event for the Australian political class. It means that our policy debate, which is centred on how to repeal the ETS, will now be on whether repeal is appropriate in light of international politics. 

In the next few months be prepared for relatively high levels of  U.S media scrutiny (from both sides of the political spectrum) on what our political system is doing with regards to climate change policy. I am sure the News Ltd publications will love that. This will all be kicked off with Abbott's very timely tour of North America. Abbott is about to meet Obama just as this debate flares up in the US. Can you imagine the joint press conference PM’s and Presidents usually hold? How will Abbott avoid openly contradicting the most powerful man in the world, and our greatest “friend and ally”? 

Will he avoid the whole thing? That in itself will be momentous: “Abbott snubs Obama!” 

But over time it gets worse for Abbott.  The next Conference of Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be held in Paris in November next year. The conference will seek to establish an international agreement on a post-2020 regime that will bind all the nations of the world, including the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, by a universal agreement on a response to global warming and climate change.

There will now be the focus and pressure on the Abbott government to commit to major CO2 reductions at COP 2015; there will be the decline in income from our largest export earner, and; there will be direct pressure from the US to respond positively on climate change.

All this will be compounded by the impression on the public mind created by the imminent El Nino weather system that is likely to cause drought and record temperatures across much of Australia over the next 12 to 18 months, once again pushing climate awareness to the front of the national mind.

I’ll put it bluntly: Due to changes in US domestic politics the Obama administration is pledging to cut its emissions substantially. It will pressure other countries to do the same. It will make this a focus of US policy for at least the next 2 years, and with the likely ascension of Clinton, also in the next term. This global debate will be happening at the same time as our national debate is heading in the opposite direction, and with our economy and environment under visible strain. 

Maybe we should actually beef up the ETS? How will repealing affect our trading position? The conservatives, both in the media and in the parliament, are not in any way prepared for this eventuality. Abbott’s position may become untenable not because of anything the ALP does, but because of external events well beyond our borders.